Ontario Votes 2018 Poll Tracker

Latest polls and projections

Updated on May 12, 2018

Poll averages

 

PC
41.5%
+0.4
NDP
27.1%
-0.1
LIB
24.9%
-0.8
GRN
5.1%
+0.4
OTH
1.3%
0.0

Seat projections

 

minoritymajority
PC90
6298
NDP27
1742
LIB7
233
GRN0
OTH0

Probability of winning

 

90.8%
Probability of the Progressive Conservativeswinning a majority
5.3%
Probability of the Progressive Conservativeswinning a minority
3.3%
Probability of the Liberals winning the most seats
0.5%
Probability of the NDP winning the most seats
The Progressive Conservatives under Doug Ford continue to hold a commanding lead in the polls and are well-positioned to secure a majority government. The New Democrats have moved ahead of the Liberals in the popular vote, but have been in a better position to win more seats — and thus form the official opposition — for some time. Nevertheless, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals still have a greater chance of winning the most seats than do the New Democrats — though the likelihood is very small — as an over-estimation by the polls of the PCs is more likely to benefit the Liberals on the electoral map, rather than the NDP.

How has the forecast changed?

 

Updated on May 12, 2018


Ontario
Eastern Ontario
Toronto
Southwestern Ontario
GTA-Hamilton-Niagara
Northern Ontario

    
majorityJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayPolling Averages (%)51015202530354045OTHGRNLIBNDPPC
The PCs’ lead in the polls has held steady, with no strong trend either for or against the party since Doug Ford became leader. The PCs lead in every region of the province — including now in Toronto. The New Democrats have been boosted by a series of positive polls and appear to have some momentum as the campaign kicks off.