Canada’s oilpatch is eagerly anticipating higher prices and profits after Minnesota regulators approved Calgary-based Enbridge Inc.’s $9-billion project to upgrade its deteriorating Line 3 crude oil pipeline through the state.
The replacement pipeline is to restore Line 3’s capacity to 760,000 barrels per day, thus adding 375,000 bpd of export capacity into the United States when it comes on stream in late 2019 or early 2020.
The increase is expected to help relieve a transportation bottleneck that has increased the discount on Canadian heavy oil prices versus U.S. benchmarks.
“It is a very positive and extremely critical step in this whole process,” said Chris Bloomer, CEO of the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association on Friday. “That’s good news and I’m very confident it will proceed and get built.”
Canada will still need the proposed Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in the West Coast and the Keystone XL pipeline into the U.S., he added, to handle growing production mainly from the northern Alberta oilsands.
“From our perspective this was the best news that the Canadian oil and gas industry has received for a long time,” said analysts at Desjardins Capital Markets in a report on Thursday’s decision in Minnesota.
Investors were also impressed. Enbridge’s stock price closed at $47.00, up $3.10 or just over seven per cent, on Friday on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Construction of the pipeline is crucial to ensure access to the U.S. Midwest, which imported 2.3 million barrels per day of Canadian crude in 2017, said Nancy Berard-Brown, manager of oil markets and transportation for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
“The Enbridge mainline, of which Line 3 is a major backbone component, has served as the principal route for exports of Canadian crude oil to U.S. markets for decades,” she said.
The Minnesota approval removes a negative overhang on Enbridge’s business plan as the project is the largest part of its $22-billion capital growth program over the next two years, analysts said.
Enbridge has pegged the cost of the Canadian segment of Line 3 at $5.3 billion, with an additional $3.8 billion budgeted for the U.S. segment. It has spent $3.6 billion to date on the overall project.
The company estimates the pipeline will be in service in the second half of 2019, although analysts cautioned it may take until the first quarter of 2020 if substantial civil disobedience delays construction.
“We are taking potential delays during the construction process resulting from criminal protesters into consideration (similar to what occurred during the Dakota Access pipeline construction),” said analyst Ian Gillies of GMP FirstEnergy Capital in a report.
Opponents have threatened a repeat of the 2016-17 protests on the Standing Rock Reservation in North Dakota against the Dakota Access pipeline, in which Enbridge owns a stake. Those protests drew thousands of opponents and there were more than 700 arrests.