Trump’s odds of staying in office: The Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter for July 20

Trump’s odds of staying in office: The Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter for July 20

Ben Shannon and Kevin Kirk)


Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, and that summit has raised a lot of questions — even among some Republicans.

Because of that, according to the Irish betting house Paddy Power, the odds are looking higher when it comes to U.S president getting impeached.

During a news conference on Monday, Trump said he didn’t see “any reason why” Russia would have interfered with the 2016 U.S. election, despite recent indictments announced by the U.S. Justice Department.

Trump’s responses sparked controversy internationally. On Tuesday, Trump clarified that he accepted the U.S. intelligence community’s findings and added, “It could be other people also — there’s a lot of people out there. There was no collusion at all.”

In light of Trump’s comments, we turned to Paddy Power to see how much the needle has shifted on the Day 6 Impeach-O-Meter.

Every few weeks, we check in on the odds of U.S. President Donald Trump being impeached, from one — meaning totally safe in the White House — to 100, meaning impeachment is imminent.

When we last checked in, Tina Nguyen of Vanity Fair’s The Hive put the odds of impeachment at 20 per cent — a five per cent increase over the previous prediction.

This week, Lee Price, a spokesperson for Paddy Power, gave us his reading. Here’s what he had to say:

“I do think that this week’s events brings Trump close to impeachment, although doesn’t every week? Let me tell you in Dublin, here at Power Tower, we have a team of anoraks who sit in a dimly lit floor pricing up all sorts of algorithms and working out probabilities. They have priced up exactly the price they think it is for Donald Trump to be impeached during his first term at 2 to 1.

Strange, because impeachment on a practical level, seems more difficult than backtracking from his ridiculous statement about the FBI and taking the side of a Russian president against them. And yet, it’s still becoming more and more likely for our odds.

I just think Donald Trump is a walking impeachment magnet. Obviously, I think antagonizing massive swathes of the country, I think dodgy policy, I think siding against immigrant children — all of these things aren’t going to help your case.”

So where does Price place the probability of a Donald Trump impeachment this week?

“33 per cent.”

That marks an increase of 13 per cent over our last prediction.

We’ll continue to track the numbers in the weeks to come and you can follow along here.

To hear Lee Price give his Impeach-O-Meter prediction, download our podcast or click the ‘Listen’ button at the top of this page.

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