Washington (CNN)The relevant question at this point in the 2018 election — 55 days before the vote — is not whether this will be a good election for House Democrats, but rather, how good an election it will be.
And, according to three new national polls released over the last 24 hours, the answer to that is: A very, very good election.
A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Democrats with a 52% to 38% edge on the generic ballot question. (“Would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?”). An NPR/Marist poll showed a similar 12-point margin on the generic ballot. A Politico/Morning Consult survey showed Democrats with a 10-point bulge.
Historically, the generic ballot is regarded as a weathervane that, generally speaking, predicts which direction the wind is blowing — and how hard — in the national environment. While Democrats regularly enjoy a small edge in the generic ballot, double-digit leads for Democrats usually predict major seat swings.