People inside both the Conservative and Liberal campaigns tell me the same thing – internal polling shows the Liberals under Justin Trudeau have stalled at around 30-32% support.
Moreover, now that left-wing voters have somewhere else to go following strong debate performances by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, the governing Liberals have no growth potential.
The Liberals cannot reach the 38% support level needed to win a majority. The best they can do is a minority.
But the other thing campaign insiders tell me about the daily polling being done by the Liberal and Conservative war rooms is that the bottom has fallen out of Tory support in Ontario. And that, if correct, is even more significant than the Liberal stall.7
And rather than attacking Liberal economic policy (which is non-existent), Scheer has made his position on abortion more important to Ontarians by offering weak, unclear answers. By failing to anticipate that the Libs would raise the subject and preparing a strong response, Scheer has added credibility to Liberal smears by appearing to have something to hide.
Ditto with his feeble response to news that he still holds dual Canadian-American citizenship and with his refusal to release a costed-out platform until after the debates.
Scheer has allowed his opponents to convince voters he is ineffective at best and untrustworthy at worst.
I will vote for Scheer and the Conservatives, without hesitation. He would govern far better than he campaigns.