This is not about whether there is such a thing as a literal
social contract.
The phrase has always been a metaphor, and an imprecise one
since it was first invoked by Enlightenment-era thinkers trying to sort through
a rationale for collective practice of some sort.
It’s easy enough to regard the social contact not as
explicit but implied, evolved and organic to the public mind. At the most
intuitive level, we can think of it as a widely shared understanding of mutual
obligation, a tie that binds, and also the exchange relationship between
society and state.
The bare minimum idea of a social contract is to seek out
widespread security and peace for as many members as possible.
No matter how narrow or broad you understand that phrase, it
includes most fundamentally the shared expectations of what government should
and shouldn’t do.
Above all else, it means protecting the public from violent
attack and hence defending the rights and liberties of the people against
imposition on person, public or private.
The reality today is that the social contract is broken in
nations all over the world. This concerns the widespread failure of social
welfare, health systems and sound money. It includes the medical conscription
called vaccine mandates.
It impacts on mass migration as well as crime, and many
other issues as well. Systems are failing the world over with ill health, low
growth, inflation, rising debt and widespread insecurity and distrust.
Epic Fail
Let us consider the most shocking case in the news: the
mind-boggling failure on the part of the Israeli government to protect its
citizens against hostile elements just across its border. A revealing news
article in The New York Times explains the aftermath. It includes:
a total breakdown of trust between the citizens and the
state of Israel, and a collapse of everything Israelis believed in and relied
on. Initial assessments point to an Israeli intelligence failure before the
surprise attack, the failure of a sophisticated border barrier, the military’s
slow initial response and a government that seems to have busied itself with
the wrong things and now appears largely absent and dysfunctional.
Nahum Barnea, a prominent Israeli commentator, put it this way:
“We are mourning for those who were murdered, but the loss does not end there:
It is the state that we lost.”
True, there has been very little discussion of this terrible
topic and understandably so. Israel at its base, as a project and history, is a
promise of security for the Jewish people. That is the core of it all.
If it fails here, it fails everywhere.
After all, the attacks from Hamas were extremely
well-planned over two or perhaps three years. Where was the famed Israeli
intelligence? How is it possible that it could have failed in so many ways that
end in unspeakable mayhem and murder, even to the point that Israel itself is
hamstrung in its response by the existence of so many hostages?
It’s utterly heartbreaking, not only for the loss of life
but also for the loss of shared trust that this nation depends on so
foundationally.
Did It Start With COVID?
So what’s the answer? Part of the answer is that 3½ years
ago, the Israeli government turned its attention to chasing down a virus as a
national priority. It wasn’t only social distancing and business closures. It
was contact tracing, mass testing and masking. The vaccine mandates in the
country were some of the most coercive and universal in the world.
Almost immediately at the onset of the crisis, the Israeli
government maxed out stringencies, going further than the U.S. Nearly a year
later, they grew even tighter, only relaxing a full year later.
As Sunetra Gupta pointed out early on, this was already a
near-universal violation of the social contract on how to handle infectious
disease. In nearly every nation, we had rules of isolation to protect workers
in some classes while workers in other classes were shoved in front of the
virus.
This contradicted all modern public-health practice, which
had long eschewed dividing classes this way. The theory of the past is that
infectious disease is a burden shared socially with special efforts to protect
the vulnerable — based not on class, race and access, but on traits of the
human experience shared by everyone.
The warnings poured in from dissident scientists from the
very onset – even dating back a decade and a half earlier — that anything like
a lockdown would wreck trust in public health, respect for science and
confidence in government institutions and those allied with them. That is
precisely what has happened the world over.
And it was only the beginning. The mandates to get a shot
hardly anyone really needed or wanted was next-level crazy. It required an
“all-of-government” approach, and it became a priority that trumped all others.
Every national experience is different in the particulars
but the theme is all nations that attempted extreme measures of virus control
neglected other concerns. In the U.S., every other concern was shelved.
Goodbye to the Old Wisdom
For example, during these years, the immigration issue
became paramount in people’s lives, particularly those in border states that
had long lived with a delicate balance of friendly relations and controlled
flows of the human population.
During the COVID years, this was blown up. It was obviously
true with educational policy too. Decades of focus on educational health and
outcomes were thrown out in favor of full school closures that extended a year
and longer.
It was also true with economic policy. Suddenly, and
seemingly out of nowhere, no one could be bothered with the age-old warnings
against too much expansion of the money stock and public debt.
It’s as if all the old wisdom was put on a shelf. Surely the
gods would reward a nation that controlled the virus by not allowing them to
reap the whirlwind stemming from outrageous levels of spending and printing.
Sure enough, all those embedded forces of nature came anyway.
The idea of closing nations and economies to focus on virus
control was millenarian in its ambitions. It was sheer fantasy. Time doesn’t
stop. We only pretend to stop it. Societies and economies always move forward
with time, like seas embedding and flowing with the rotations of the Earth.
No government in the world is powerful enough to stop it.
The attempt produces calamity.
The Awakening
It’s been 3½ years since this grand experiment began, and
now a plurality of people the world over are only now fully realizing the
extent of the damage and who caused it. After all, we do have the internet to
document what happened, so it does no good for the pushers of lockdowns just to
pretend like nothing happened.
When given the chance, voters have begun driving these
people from office, or they are escaping before facing humiliation.
Over the weekend, this is what happened in New Zealand, one
of the most locked-down states in the world during the COVID years. The prime
minister from those years, who claimed to be the one source of truth, has found
sanctuary at Harvard while the politics of the nation have entered the upheaval
stage.
Each nation has a story of failure and tragedy but the one
that grips us most is perhaps the Israeli one. I’m writing in the aftermath of
the bloodthirsty attacks on innocents which occurred during a national crisis,
the response from which will inevitably unleash new forces of violence and
blowback.
The questions about the security failings that led to this
are not going away. They’re growing more intense by the hour.
1914 All Over Again?
A nation like Israel, geographically young and fragile,
depends foundationally on a government that can keep its commitments to its
people. When it fails so spectacularly and with such enormous cost, it brings
forth a new moment in national life, one which will echo far into the future.
Less spectacularly, other nations are dealing with a similar
crisis of confidence in leadership. All the reminders that “We told you so” do
not fix the underlying problem we face the world over today.
There are crises piling on crises, and analysts warning that
we are in a 1914 moment seem to be speaking a truth we don’t want to hear but
we should.
The idea of the modern state was that it would be better
than ancient states because it would be accountable to the people,the voters,
the press and the private-sector watchdogs and above all to do the one job it
was assigned: defending the rights and liberties of the people.
That is the very center of the modern social contract. Bit
by bit and then all at once, the contract was shredded.
If we really are looking at something along the lines of
1914, history should absolutely record what immediately preceded these awful
days. Governments of the world turned vast resources and attention to the grand
project of unprecedented scope: the universal mastery of the microbial kingdom.
We were only beginning to process just how spectacularly the
central plan failed when we’re dealing with the most egregious fallout that not
even the most pessimistic among us could have foreseen.
The social contract is shredded. Another one of a different
sort must be drafted — once again, not literally but implicitly and
organically.
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