A growing threat to Justin Trudeau’s re-election may come from a source few would have considered just a few months ago.
The latest poll from Campaign Research shows support for Elizabeth May and the Green Party on the rise, helping split the progressive vote three ways.
Nationally, the poll puts the Conservatives in the lead with 35% support, the Liberals at 32%, NDP at 14% and Greens at 12%
While May is still a long way from becoming PM, her party’s change in fortunes is coming at the expense of the NDP and Liberals.
As recently as February the Greens were polling at just 7%.
Maybe this is due to the Greens winning a recent by-election in British Columbia, doubling their number of seats to two!
Or it could be a spin-off from the May 5 provincial ballot in P.E.I. where the Greens threatened to form government.
While this is certainly great news for May, I wouldn’t be popping the carbon-neutral champagne just yet.
The poll shows that while the Greens are up, their vote — like those of the Liberals and NDP — could be fluid.
Asking voters for each party if their decision was locked-in, those supporting both the Greens and NDP were most interested in switching.
Just seven per cent said they were committed to either NDP or Green, and would not consider another party.
The news wasn’t much better for Trudeau’s Liberals.
Just 17% of voters say that Team Trudeau is the only vote they would consider, meaning as many as half of those backing the Liberals are open to switching.
For the Conservatives, one quarter of voters say the blue team is their only option, showing that they have the most dedicated voters at this time.