Report warns Trudeau’s carbon tax will go up a lot

Don’t say that you weren’t warned: For Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax to accomplish its goals, it will have to go up significantly.

The latest warning comes from the non-partisan Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO).

According to the PBO, Canada will need to boost its carbon tax from $50 a tonne in 2022 to between $102 and $138 a tonne by 2030 if Canada is to meet its Paris Agreement targets on greenhouse gas emissions.

The difference between $102 and $138 a tonne is dependent on the state of the economy and the price of oil over the next 11 years.

However, the PBO’s main estimate is that the carbon tax will need to rise to $102 a tonne by 2030 to close a gap of 79 Mt of emissions in order to meet Canada’s Paris Agreement targets. If the economy grows and oil and gas production increases, emissions could be 55 Mt higher meaning a gap of 134 Mt.

“The additional carbon price needed to achieve the Paris target with a gap of 134 Mt would rise from $10 per tonne in 2023 to $88 per tonne in 2030,” the report reads.

Trudeau hasn’t reduced other taxes such as income tax; he has simply introduced a carbon tax on top of other taxes — a carbon tax most experts say is too low to have the desired effect.

As we head towards the October vote and Trudeau tries to make the carbon tax and his fight against climate change a central theme, it will be up to individual voters to hold him to account and ask him how high the tax will go.

We’ve heard from the PBO, now it’s time to hear from Trudeau.